US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
The value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India's stellar economic fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
Exports grew to $16.34 billion while imports rose to $27.14 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $10.79 billion in July, according to official figures released in New Delhi on Monday. On the back of increase in global prices, the crude oil import bill in July shot up by 69.3 per cent to $9.48 billion from $5.6 billion a year ago.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
There has been a dramatic decline in oil prices from the high of $147 a barrel in July, to less than a third of that today. However, it is too early to say if this is a fundamental change in the direction of oil prices, resulting from the announced cuts in production by the oil-exporting countries, or a blip in a falling market. The government seems to be assuming (or hoping that it is) the latter and is rushing ahead with its price cut plan.
Financials were the top losers while oil shares also declined amid weak crude oil prices.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, bought crude oil worth 49 billion euros from Russia in the third year of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a global think tank said. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
Bank shares were the top gainer in early trades with Bank of Baroda up over 4%.
India's purchase of Russian oil has risen to 2 million barrels per day in August, as refiners continue to prioritise economic considerations in their sourcing decisions. As much as 38 per cent out of an estimated 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in the first half of August came from Russia, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
The policy review observed that the moderation in inflation, excluding food and fuel, that was witnessed in the first quarter of 2017-18 has "by and large, reversed".
The government has reduced the tariff value for import of edible oil, including palm oil, by up to $112 per tonne, a move which experts said can lead to lower domestic prices. The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC), through a notification, has cut the tariff import value of crude palm oil by $86 per tonne, and of RBD and crude palmolein by $112 per tonne each. It also reduced the base import price of crude soyabean oil by $37 per tonne. The changes in tariff value of edible oil are effective from Thursday (June 17).
Replying to questions on losses to Air India, civil aviation minister Praful Patel said the rally in international crude oil prices that touched $147 a barrel in July 2008, hit Indian carriers by Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) in jet fuel bill. Air India loses are a result of high jet fuel prices and fall in air traffic following global economic slowdown, he said. "There are (also) systematic issues which need to be corrected."
Crude oil has fallen about 40 per cent since mid June and the price on Monday touched its lowest level since mid 2009 before US oil prices posted their biggest one-day gain in two years overnight.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
WPI inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global cues would dictate trends in the stock market this week, analysts said.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd is estimated to have earned 724 million euros (about Rs 6,850 crore) from exporting fuel made from Russian crude oil to the US in one year, an European think tank said in a report. "From January 2024 to the end of January 2025, the US imported EUR 2.8 billion of refined oil from six refineries in India and Turkey that process Russian crude.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
India will join hands with Paris-based International Energy Agency to counter artificial price volatility in the international oil market and create buffers for supply disruptions.
The government has slashed the windfall profit tax levied on domestically-produced crude oil as well as on export of diesel and ATF following a drop in global oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been cut steeply to Rs 1,700 per tonne from Rs 4,900, the order dated December 15 said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground is refined and converted into fuel like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
The government has cut the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country while the levy on exports of diesel and ATF has been hiked, an official notification said. The tax, levied in the form of special additional excise duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was reduced to Rs 6,700 per tonne from Rs 7,100 a tonne. SAED on the export of diesel was increased to Rs 6 per litre from Rs 5.50 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to Rs 4 per litre from Rs 2, the notification said.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
The Opec output has fallen slightly in November at around 29 million barrels a day since last August.
The rupee witnessed a volatile trading session and settled for the day on a slightly lower note, down 1 paisa at 90.66 against the US dollar on Monday, as traders assessed the details of the India-US interim trade framework.
The government on Monday scrapped 30-month old windfall profit tax on domestically-produced crude oil and on export of jet fuel (ATF), diesel and petrol following a decline in international oil prices. Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary tabled a notification in Rajya Sabha scrapping the levy on crude oil produced by firms like state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and exports of fuels done by companies like Reliance Industries Ltd.
Union Budget 2012-13 has hiked the cess on crude petroleum oil produced in India from Rs 2,500 per tonne to Rs 4,500 per tonne. This is highly negative for upstream companies producing crude oil because the companies have to absorb the hike in cess as crude oil prices are priced based on the landed cost of imports.
The BSE benchmark Sensex surged about 241 points to end at 35,165.48 and the NSE Nifty gained 84 points to close at 10,688.65.
The Consumer Price Index-based inflation rose to 5.11% in January
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Trading activity of foreign investors and crude oil prices would also remain in the limelight during the week, experts noted. "This week brings a series of important economic data releases from India and the United States, which are likely to influence market sentiment and central bank outlooks.
Declining crude price translates into lower under-recoveries for OMCs
A surge in international oil prices may translate into an increase in the retail selling price of petrol and diesel in India as oil companies face extreme margin squeeze, sources said. Petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged for 12 days but now the international rate surge is exerting pressure. Current prices of petrol and diesel in the international market are higher by around $4-6 per barrel as compared to average prices during August. However, no increase in retail prices has been affected by oil companies so far, sources said.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to a record high of 15.88 per cent in May on rising prices of food items and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 15.08 per cent in April and 13.11 per cent in May last year. "The high rate of inflation in May, 2022 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, basic metals, non-food articles, chemicals & chemical products and food products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
The US said India will lower tariffs on a "vast array" of American industrial and agricultural goods, such as "fruits, vegetables", to zero per cent under the trade deal announced by President Donald Trump.
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